Creating a Monster: Will Bird Flu Research Result in a Deadly Pandemic?

Why does H5N1 Avian flu cause uproar every time scientists decide to research it?

Well, for a start it is highly pathogenic with a fatality rate of some 60% amongst known cases, it is estimated that many cases occurring in remote regions are unreported and that the case incidence and the mortality rate may well be considerably higher than this.

As of January 16th 2013 the World Health Organization has had 610 cases reported to it from 15 countries.

Of those 610 cases 360 of them have proved fatal. The fatalities vary widely from region to region with Nigeria reporting 1 case and 1 fatality, therefore showing a 100% mortality rate through to Egypt with 169 cases and 60 deaths, a mortality rate of around 35%.

The death rate is therefore averaged to avoid such massive swings in the data.

Should H5N1 mutate sufficiently to move from a disease caught by those working in live bird markets, or those living and working with poultry in their immediate area, to a disease able to pass easily from human to human a pandemic is not just possible but extremely likely.

Avian flu is not only carried by domestic fowl but by the wild bird population who migrate thousand of miles a year carrying the disease with them. Wild birds die all the time from this virus and that will continue.

Wild bird die offs happen quite often as a result of bird flu and millions of domestic poultry have been culled to halt its spread into new regions.
As a condition that the human race has no resistance to it would spread through the population in an unstoppable wave, leaving more than half of the planets 7 billion souls dead.

The fact that it is showing resistance to Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) in some cases does not bode well as this medication is considered the medication of choice to treat the disease.

more here: The Intelhub

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